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Men's NCAA DI Team Preview

Published by
DyeStatCOLLEGE.com   Nov 22nd 2013, 9:14pm
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Can Anyone Beat Oklahoma State?

By Scott Bush

It's here. Finally! This NCAA cross country season was a fun one, with some surprise teams, fast rising individuals and traditional powers racking up big wins and showing a serious push heading into the NCAA Cross Country Championships this weekend. On the men's side, there are a handful of teams capable of finishing top three and even more depth behind that fighthing it out for top eight. With Saturday's race upon us, here are the favorites, the pack and a few scenarios of upsets and surprises we could see. 

The Top Contenders

Since they won the title last fall, all eyes have been focused squarely on Oklahoma State repeating their efforts this weekend in Terre Haute. Returning a slew of All-American talent and solid depth, the Cowboys on paper should run away with this year’s first place trophy. Things aren’t as easy as that though, as Oklahoma State has flaws it didn’t have a year ago.

Where Oklahoma State shines is in their 1-2-3 punch. Tom Farrell, Shadrack Kipchirchir and Kirubel Erassa are a potent force, all capable of challenging for top 15 on Saturday. The biggest question remains in their 4-5 spots. Both Joseph Manilafasha and Shane Moskowitz stepped up in big ways last fall in Louisville, helping OSU clinch the win. This year, both are running off what they were accomplishing last year at this time. For OSU to win, one or both need to hit it big. The rise of sophomore Craig Nowak helps tremendously, adding additional depth, but Nowak is still relatively unproven in championship level collegiate racing.

While all of these points might go against Oklahoma State, they are an incredibly experienced squad and there is a reason Dave Smith’s teams have won the title three of the past four seasons. Smith knows how to get his squad up for a challenge, has been brushing off the favorite title all week by speaking to some vulnerability, but you can be certain this squad is ready to step up to the plate and carry on the Oklahoma State tradition.

While Oklahoma State remains the favorites in most fans’ minds, US#1 Northern Arizona might have something to say about that. Earlier in the season at the OSU Cowboy Jamboree, Oklahoma State beat NAU in a clash of US#1 versus US#2. However, neither squad ran their full top seven and questions remained. At the Wisconsin adidas Invitational, Northern Arizona ran terrific, beating runner-up BYU by 53 points, placing six runners in the top 50 and three runners in the top 17.

The emergence of Matt McElroy as a top 20 threat to go along with Futsum Zeinasellassie and Brian Shrader gives the Lumberjacks firepower up front to match OSU, now it’s all a matter if their 4-5-6 crew can best the rest to the finish. Don’t forget that NAU beat US#3 Colorado at the Mountain Region, 61-69.

Speaking of Colorado, the Buffaloes are running incredibly strong heading into the weekend. After the squad’s dominating performance at Pre-Nationals, where they beat runner-up Oregon 90-119 and placed all five runners in the top 28, the team continued to roll, winning Pac-12s and running a strong second to NAU at regionals. The team knows how to win, they love running in conditions that are less than ideal and they have ridiculous depth.

Strong packs tend to do very well at nationals, considering the first few runners are of All-American caliber. Oklahoma State has used that to their advantage for much of their championships racing over the past five years. Looking at Colorado, they run 1-5 splits under 30 seconds in their biggest (Pre-Nats, conference, regionals) meets. The front running on Pierce Murphy, Ben Saarel and Morgan Pearson should lead Colorado to make strong challenges to Oklahoma State and Northern Arizona.

Not to be overlooked, both Stanford and Oregon are running well. While both teams have plenty of talent, they’ll need perfect races in order to upset one of the top three squads, let along challenge for the title. Oregon is a runner-up champion this season. The team placed second to Colorado at both Pre-Nationals and Pac-12s, then finished behind Stanford at the West Regional 53-64. Edward Cheserek is a legit top three challenger and will lead the Ducks, who hope their 3-4-5 runners can step up big on Saturday.

Stanford on the other hand is coming on strong when it matters most. After a fourth place effort at Pre-Nationals earlier in the season, the squad ran to a third place finish at Pac-12s and then won the West Regional. The problem for the Cardinal is their 1-5 split. Their top four of Jim Rosa, Erik Olson, Michael Atchoo and Sean McGorty have been solid all season, but they ran a 1:27 split at Pac-12s and a 52 second split at regionals. Their 4-5 split at regionals was 38 seconds. If they can half that time this weekend, Stanford will have a legit chance to trophy.

The sleeper in the field, overlooked nearly all season, is New Mexico. The Lobos ran to a fifth place finish at the Wisconsin adidas Invitational, but have been getting better and stronger each week since. New Mexico has veteran front runners leading the squad, including Luke Caldwell, who’s shooting for a top ten finish. Like many other squads, they’ll need their fifth man to step it up if they hope to bring home a trophy.

The two other squads in the “top contenders” column are BYU and Arkansas. The addition of Jared Ward and running very conservatively at the Mountain Region should give the Cougars an added final push at NCAAs. If their 2-3-4 runners can match Stanford’s and Oregon’s, a trophy is certainly within reach. BYU has arguably the deepest team in the country, but a team’s top five is all that counts on race day.

Arkansas is a unique squad. Between Kemoy Campbell, Stanley Kebenei and Solomon Haile, the Razaorbacks have one of the most talented trios in the country, hands down. Toss sophomore Gabe Gonzalez into the mix and Arkansas is a real force. They need their entire group outside of Campbell to really step up and hang with the top teams’ 2-3-4 runners. Arkansas has run “trophy level good” a couple times this season, so they are more than capable, it’s now just a matter of putting it all together for the meet that matters most.

The Pack

While eight teams are considered the top contenders this weekend, there is plenty of other team talent to challenge for the top eight and certainly the top ten. Leading the charge is Syracuse, who once again own one of the deepest squads in the country and enter Saturday’s race riding a wave of momentum after winning the Northeast Regional over Columbia, Iona and Providence. Syracuse runs a tight pack, running a 24 second 1-5 split behind the front running of Martin Hehir and Robert Molke. Such a strong pack will come in handy this weekend.

Tulsa and Portland both have capable front running talent and strong packs, as well. Tulsa finished second in the Midwest Region behind Oklahoma State and have standout Chris O’Hare leading the way. The squad only finished five points behind OSU at regionals and are strong through five runners. If any of their top five slip though, it’s a long way back to their sixth runner.

Portland finished third at the West Regional, placing behind Stanford and Oregon. Why Portland clearly lacks in their 2-3-4 spots compared to the trophy contending squads, leader Scott Fauble gives them a legitimate top 20 threat. This team is built for success over 10,000m and the Pilots tend to race bigger than the sum of their parts, so don’t be surprised if Portland finishes top eight in Terre Haute.

The best of the rest in the pack include Big Ten stalwarts Michigan (winner of the Great Lakes Region), Indiana (winner of the Big Ten meet) and perennial national contender Wisconsin. Iona, Columbia, Villanova, Notre Dame and Eastern Kentucky also have a good mix of talent up front and pack running and could pose a threat to the top eight contenders on the perfect day of racing.  



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